Consumers, Crypto, and Chaos: The Market Pulse of Week 29, 2025

1️⃣ Introduction: Still Swiping Through the Storm 🌪️💳

It’s earnings season again, and once more, we find ourselves asking: Is the U.S. consumer finally cracking under pressure?

The answer—at least for now—is a resounding nope. 💥 Despite rising interest rates, sticky inflation, resurgent tariffs, and an increasingly fractured global backdrop, the American shopper continues to hold the line. From AmEx statements to Squid Game binge sessions, the data remains firm: the so-called “consumer rot” is nowhere to be found.

Meanwhile, markets are balancing a complex trifecta of influences: Bitcoin’s resurgence, tariff-driven inflation signals, and Chevron’s $53B fossil-fueled flex. It’s a chaotic brew of old economy power plays, new economy narratives, and a healthy dose of denial. Let’s unpack all of it—consumer resilience, crypto’s evolution, energy consolidation, and the simmering inflationary storm.

2️⃣ Macro Trends Breakdown

✅ The Good 🌟: Swiping, Streaming, and Spending

🏦 American Express (AXP): Still Minting Per Swipe

• Record-high Q2 card spend
• CEO Stephen Squeri: "Consumers are still living their lives"
• Full-year guidance? Unchanged

📺 Netflix (NFLX): Churn-Proof Pricing

• Beat subscriber estimates despite price hikes
• Live sports + sequels = sticky engagement
• $3.1B Q2 profit, shares +37% YTD

🛍️ June Retail Sales: Broad-Based Strength

• General merchandise, personal care up
• High employment + leftover COVID savings = tailwinds

✈️ United Airlines (UAL): Travel Rebounding

• CEO Scott Kirby flagged a demand inflection
• Decline in geopolitical/tax uncertainties unlocking spend

🚫 The Bad 💩: Signs of Strain

💵 Tariffs: The Slow Squeeze

• Packaging changes (e.g., PepsiCo downsizing) hint at trade-down behavior
• Hidden inflation creeping into shelves, furniture, and electronics

🧃 PepsiCo: Small Is the New Big

• Smaller pack sizes are selling—but signal value-conscious shoppers
• Margin pressure likely to emerge in future quarters

😬 The Ugly 🤯: Python and the Pig

🧠 Apollo's Torsten Sløk: Delayed Shock

"The pig is coming through the python... slowly."

• Credit card balances at risk of becoming toxic
• Consumer sentiment resilient but fragile

3️⃣ Crypto Reignited: Regulatory Green Lights & Institutional Buys

🏛️ GENIUS Act: The Pro-Bitcoin Pivot

• Trump signs law defining stablecoins & crypto market structure
• Expands 401(k) access to crypto
• Could cement the U.S. as a global crypto hub

📈 Bitcoin Tops $120K, Cools to $118K

• ETF inflows, custody growth, institutional legitimization
• BlackRock iShares Crypto ETF pulls $14B in Q2 (+366%)

🛠️ Infrastructure Grows Up

• Webull reintegrates crypto trading
• Canaan shipping immersion-cooled miners to Cipher
• Block (SQ) sees Bitcoin treasury bet pay off

📊 Top Movers

4️⃣ Oil, Tariffs, and M&A: The Old Economy Strikes Back

🛢️ Chevron Bags Hess for $53B

• Arbitration ends Exxon standoff
• Guyana oil stake adds high-quality assets
• Big Oil is consolidating while ESG cools

💣 Tariffs Return With a Vengeance

• Trump proposes 15–30% blanket tariffs
• Dozens of bankruptcy filings cite tariff costs (e.g., At Home Group, Mosaic Cos.)
• PPI Goods +0.3% in June suggests tariffs are filtering into input costs

🧠 JPMorgan’s New Game: Covering Private AI Firms

• JPM to launch reports on OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.
• No ratings, no price targets—just pure signal

5️⃣ Europe’s Comeback Tour: Is the Rally Real or Just a Short-Term Stunt? 🇪🇺📈

Introduction: The Underdogs Bite Back 🐶💥

After years in the shadow of the U.S. bull market, European and UK equities are suddenly staging a comeback in 2025. With German fiscal stimulus, easing inflation, undervaluation, and a UK-US trade deal providing stability, the region is gaining attention.

Macro Trends Breakdown

The Good 🌟

• Eurozone GDP grew 1.5% YoY in Q1 2025
• Inflation at ECB-friendly levels: 2–2.3%
• Germany plans €500B in infrastructure and defense from 2026
• UK-US Tariff Deal removes short-term uncertainty
• Valuations: EU equities ~35% cheaper than U.S., UK ~42%
• Sector Momentum: European banks, utilities, and industrials leading earnings beats

The Bad 💩

• UK Inflation rebounded to 3.4% in May 2025
• UK Contraction: April–May GDP slipped, unemployment at 4.6%
• Sector Divergence: UK discretionary consumption lagging

The Ugly 🤯

• Tariff Wars Looming: Trump threatens 30% EU tariffs, EU planning retaliation
• Fed Turbulence: Trump’s Powell attacks unsettle bond markets
• AI Arms Race: DoD’s Big Tech contracts intensify global tech tensions

Investing Insights

Outperformers 💪

• EU Financials, Industrials, Utilities
• UK Healthcare, Staples, Global Tech

At Risk ⚠️

• UK Discretionary Retail
• Export-heavy manufacturing (autos, spirits)

Risks Ahead

• Trump tariffs
• Fed volatility
• German stimulus delays
• UK inflation surprises

Strategy 💡

Defensive

• EU utilities & dividend-rich stocks
• UK global staples

Offensive

• German industrials
• Cross-listed tech innovators
• Sector-focused ETFs > broad indices

Why Index Tracking May Fail You

• EU/UK markets have low concentration, high dispersion
• Active selection beats passive for alpha
• Understand if a firm is global or local before investing

Conclusion: Slow Burn or Sustainable Run?

Europe’s rally may not be flashy, but it’s real. Undervalued markets, fiscal catalysts, and sector momentum suggest long-term potential. Patience and precision matter more than passive positioning in this region.

6️⃣ Inflation Watch: The Bear Is Stirring 🐻⏰

🕵️‍♂️ Misreading the Dashboard

• PPI June headline = 0.0%, but Goods = +0.3%
• CPI/PCE are more telling as tariffs lift consumer prices
• Furniture, electronics, and comm equipment show signs of pricing pressure

🎯 Strategy

• Prefer domestic supply chains & pricing power
• Watch Q3 earnings commentary closely
• Hedge with commodities, real assets, and TIPs

7️⃣ Risks Ahead: Macro & Policy

🧨 What Could Crack the Consumer

1. Tariff Escalation: If they expand to apparel/electronics
2. Credit Card Rot: APR >20% and rising balances
3. Sticky Services Inflation: Rent, healthcare, tuition
4. Sentiment Shift: If unemployment ticks up
5. Student Loans Restart: ~1.5% spending drop expected in Q3–Q4

🔮 Additional Risks

• Trump Trade Policy Uncertainty
• Fed Missteps on Rate Cuts
• Crypto Regulation Whiplash
• Climate & ESG Backlash vs. Oil M&A
• EU-US Tariff Spiral
• Germany’s delayed fiscal rollout

8️⃣ Final Take: Navigating Asymmetry in 2025

Markets today are built on asymmetries: consumer strength vs. credit risk, Bitcoin decentralization vs. CIA-origin conspiracies, ESG headlines vs. Big Oil deals, and now undervalued Europe vs. expensive U.S.

💼 Defensive Posture

• Cash-rich tech (AAPL, MSFT)
• Staples w/ innovation (PG, PEP, COST)
• Short-duration bonds, domestic banks
• High-yield European utilities and eurozone banks

🚀 Offensive Ideas

• Mid-cap discretionary (Target, Ulta)
• AI secondaries (OpenAI, Anthropic funds)
• Crypto staking & custody infrastructure
• German industrial and energy transition plays
• Cross-listed European firms with valuation gaps

📊 Diversification Tips

• 15% cash for tactical re-entry
• Blend passive ETFs with active conviction picks
• Exposure to EM Asia and undervalued European sectors

🎤 Mic Drop: Still Standing, Still Spending 🕺💸

From $120K bitcoin to $3.1B Netflix quarters, from Chevron’s Guyana grab to the GENIUS Act, the world of 2025 is running hot—sometimes irrationally so.

But if you’re reading between the headlines, watching inflation gauges closely, and leaning into asymmetric opportunities, there’s alpha to be found.

So yes, the bear may be stirring, but so is the bull. Just make sure your portfolio packs both sunscreen and an umbrella.

Stay nimble. Stay curious. Stay decentralized.